Oops, I guess I should have asked, will they pass it?

I spoke too soon. I guess that's what I get for hoping that the Congressional leadership could actually get this done. I'm referring to what I wrote about in my last post, "Will he sign it?". You see, the bill wasn't quite passed. It had to go back to the House, and ultimately be reconciled by the two chambers. And certain House members (i.e. John Dingell, not surprisingly a representative from Michigan), are trying to strip the bill of the provisions that will require increases in fuel economy standards.

I admit, this bill is not the "holy grail" that will ween the U.S. from its dependence on foreign and domestic petroleum to fuel its automobiles. And it would inevitably include pork in the form of subsidies for alternative fuels like corn ethanol or coal-to-liquid in order to wrangle together enough votes for passage. But I believe that requiring the vehicles on the market in the future to have better fuel economy than the vehicles on the market today is a good first step.

I disagree with those who think this will have no effect on consumption, like Randy Salzman. Mr. Salzman's argument is partially based on the anecdotal evidence that when he purchased a more fuel efficient vehicle, he started driving more often than he was before that, offsetting some or all of the benefit of the increased fuel efficiency. However, he's not arguing that he miraculously found new places that he wanted or needed to go to. He acknowledges that he "...opted to commute as much as possible on [his] bicycle..." beforehand. Most people are not commuting on their bicycle as much as possible now, so most people would not see the increase in driving that Mr. Salzman experienced. He also cites David Greene's “Estimating the Fuel Economy Rebound Effect for Household Vehicles in the U.S.” which may provide an argument that is not based on anecdotal evidence. I admit to not having read it, so I can't evaluate it.

I don't disagree with Mr. Salzman's argument advocating an increase in the gas tax, the revenues of which he believes should be put to use creating alternative transportation options. That also seems to me to be a necessary, though not sufficient piece of the puzzle. There is evidence suggesting that high gas prices have had a limited impact on people's behavior, primarily affecting their most discretionary behavior, such as traveling for vacation. Indeed as the article indicates, "[a] recent Washington Post/ABC News poll found that gasoline would have to reach $4.38 a gallon before Americans would significantly cut back on their driving." I have encountered similar polling data in the past, albeit with a lower number as the "tipping point," which suggests to me that we should consider alternatives to just increasing the cost of driving...for example, increasing the fuel efficiency of the vehicles we drive.